Morning Dealing Room Technical Report

November 10, 2015

Market Comment

Australia

The S&P/ASX 200 index dropped 1.83% or 95.514pts to 5119.49 (day range: 5215 – 5102.8) on Monday. The index is below its 20d MA (@ 5249) and below its 50d MA (@ 5161). 48% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 66% the previous session) and 65% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 75%).

Foreign Exchange

The US dollar was under pressure against all of its major counterparts on Monday. No major economic news was reported in the U.S. on Monday.

The Euro was mixed against its major pairs. In Europe, Germany trade balance excess increased to E25.1B in September from E13.3B a month earlier. Exports were up by 2.6% while imports increased 3.6%.

The Australian dollar was mixed against all its major pairs.

Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1,0751 0.09 -11.13
GBP/USD 1,5117 0.43 -2.95
USD/JPY 123,18 0.04 2.92
EUR/CHF 1,0790 -0.12 -10.20
EUR/JPY 132,4300 0.12 -8.47
EUR/GBP 0,7111 -0.36 -8.43
AUD/NZD 1,0778 -0.17 2.83
AUD/JPY 86,8640 0.13 -11.16
EUR/AUD 1,5246 0.02 2.96
USD/CAD 1,3275 -0.23 14.23
USD/CHF 1,0036 -0.18 0.93
AUD/USD 0,7052 0.13 -13.74
NZD/USD 0,6542 0.28 -16.10

Currency Updates:

Medium Term Strategy: Forex Pair of the day

EUR/USD – further weakness

The pair has broken below the lower boundary of a bullish channel in place since March and is capped by its moving averages. Then, as long as 1.1495 holds as a resistance (October top), further weakness is likely with 1.0450 as a first target (March low) and 1.0190 (previous overlap) in extension. A third target is set at 0.9850 (horizontal support). Only a rebound above the resistance at 1.1495 would turn the outlook to bullish with a first alternative target set at 1.1730 (August top) and a second one set at 1.2050 (overlap, July 2012 bottom).

Intraday Technical Strategy

AUD/USD Intraday: under pressure.

Pivot 0.7090
Our preference Short positions below 0.709 with targets @ 0.702 & 0.6975 in extension.
Alternative scenario Above 0.709 look for further upside with 0.712 & 0.7175 as targets.
Comment The RSI is mixed to bearish.

 

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