Morning Dealing Room Technical Report

November 11, 2015

Market Comment

Australia

he S&P/ASX 200 index fell 0.4% or 20.261pts to 5099.23 (day range: 5119.5 – 5047) on Tuesday. The index is below its 20d MA (@ 5244) and below its 50d MA (@ 5161). 38% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 48% the previous session) and 58% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 65%).

Australia: The ANZ Roy-Morgan Consumer Confidence Index rose 1.2% WoW to 116.6 in the week ended November 8, the highest level since January 2014.

New Zealand: The number of home sales rose 18.6% YoY to 7,838 in October (vs +38.3% in September), according to the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand. The median home price grew 7.0% YoY to NZ$460K (vs +15.4% in September).

Foreign Exchange
The US dollar was mixed against all of its major counterparts on Tuesday. On the economic data front, NFIB small business optimism came in at 96.1 in Oct, in-line with last month and below the estimate of 96.4. US import prices decreased 0.5% in Oct from a decrease of 0.1% in Sept, below the -0.1 estimate. Finally, wholesale inventories rose 0.5% in Sept from an increase of 0.1% in August.

The Euro was under pressure against all its major pairs. In Europe, in the UK, the BRC said retail sales in October were up 0.9%, a disappointing growth compared to a 3.9% surge in September.

The Australian dollar was lower against all its major pairs except for the EUR.

Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1,0720 -0.30 -11.39
GBP/USD 1,5118 0.02 -2.95
USD/JPY 123,21 0.02 2.93
EUR/CHF 1,0790 0.02 -10.19
EUR/JPY 132,0700 -0.26 -8.70
EUR/GBP 0,7091 -0.31 -8.70
AUD/NZD 1,0757 -0.29 2.64
AUD/JPY 86,6080 -0.24 -11.42
EUR/AUD 1,5250 -0.05 2.99
USD/CAD 1,3265 -0.17 14.14
USD/CHF 1,0065 0.30 1.23
AUD/USD 0,7029 -0.26 -14.02
NZD/USD 0,6535 0.03 -16.19

Currency Updates:

Medium Term Strategy: Forex Pair of the day

USD/JPY – rebound

The pair has broken above a ST declining trend line and above the strong horizontal resistance at 122 and now stands above its moving averages. Further advance is therefore likely with a first target set at 126 (June top). A break above this threshold would call for further bounce towards 127.70 and towards 130 in extension (horizontal resistances). Only a break below the horizontal support at 118 would turn the outlook to bearish with a first alternative target set at 116 (December bottom) and a second one set at 113.40 (horizontal support).

Intraday Technical Strategy

AUD/USD Intraday: under pressure.

Pivot 0.7070
Our preference Short positions below 0.707 with targets @ 0.6975 & 0.6935 in extension.
Alternative scenario Above 0.707 look for further upside with 0.709 & 0.712 as targets.
Comment The RSI is mixed to bearish.

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