Morning Dealing Room Technical Report

November 13, 2015

Market Comment

Australia

The S&P/ASX 200 index edged up 0.06% or 3.068pts to 5125.69 (day range: 5150.1 – 5083.2) on Thursday. The index is below its 20d MA (@ 5235) and below its 50d MA (@ 5163). 41% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 40% the previous session) and 60% of the shares are above their 50D MA (unchanged).

Australia’s jobless rate was 5.9% in October (vs 6.2% expected and in September), according to the government.

New Zealand: The BNZ-BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index posted 53.3 in October (vs 55.0 in September).

New Zealand’s food-price index fell 1.2% MoM in October (vs -0.5% in September), according to the government.

Foreign Exchange
The US dollar was mixed against all of its major counterparts on Thursday. On the economic data front, US Initial jobless claims held steady at 276K for the week ending Nov 7. Continuing claims reported 2174K for the week ending Oct 31, up from a revised 2169K prior. The US Bloomberg consumer comfort index increased to 41.6 from 41.1 prior. Finally, the U.S. October budget deficit came in at $136.5B from a deficit of $121.7B last year.

The Euro was higher against most of its major pairs with the exception of the AUD, CHF, and EUR. In Europe, euro zone industrial production fell 0.3% in September after a 0.4% slide a month earlier. Economists anticipated a 0.1% drop. German consumer prices were flat in October, as anticipated. They decreased by 0.2% in September.

The Australian dollar pushed higher against all of its major pairs.

Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1,0819 0.71 -10.57
GBP/USD 1,5233 0.13 -2.21
USD/JPY 122,57 -0.23 2.41
EUR/CHF 1,0815 0.21 -9.98
EUR/JPY 132,6200 0.49 -8.33
EUR/GBP 0,7103 0.58 -8.54
AUD/NZD 1,0894 1.20 3.95
AUD/JPY 87,3740 0.69 -10.63
EUR/AUD 1,5178 -0.24 2.49
USD/CAD 1,3284 0.15 14.31
USD/CHF 0,9995 -0.50 0.53
AUD/USD 0,7128 0.93 -12.81
NZD/USD 0,6543 -0.24 -16.08

Currency Updates:

Medium Term Strategy: Forex Pair of the day
GBP/USD – under pressure
The pair has broken below the support at 1.5070 and is currently posting a pull back. Moreover, the dailty RSI stands below its neutrality area. Further weakness is therefore likely with 1.4850 as a first target (horizontal support) and 1.4560 in extension (horizontal support and April low). A third target is set at 1.4230 (May 2010 bottom). Only a rebound above the resistance at 1.5660 (September top) would turn the outlook to bullish with a first alternative target set at 1.5940 (June top and previous overlap) and a second one set at 1.6190( 61.8% retracement of the July 2014 to April down leg).
Intraday Technical Strategy
AUD/USD Intraday: the upside prevails.
Pivot 0.7070
Our preference Long positions above 0.707 with targets @ 0.717 & 0.7195 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 0.707 look for further downside with 0.704 & 0.7015 as targets.
Comment The RSI lacks downward momentum.

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