Morning Dealing Room Technical Report

November 19, 2015

Market Comment

Australia

The S&P/ASX 200 index increased 0.29% or 14.87pts to 5133.11 (day range: 5145.5 – 5082.7) on Wednesday. The index is below its 20d MA (@ 5199) and below its 50d MA (@ 5161). 46% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 40% the previous session) and 62% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 60%).

Australia: The Conference Board Leading Economic Index declined 0.1 percent in September to 103.5, according to the Conference Board.

Australia’s Westpac leading economic index rose 0.12% MoM to 97.74 in October, according to Westpac Banking and Melbourne Institute.

Foreign Exchange
The US dollar was higher against its major counterparts on Wednesday with the exception of the GBP. On the economic data front, MBA Mortgage Applications rose 6.2% last week compared to a decrease of 1.3% the week before. Housing Starts in the US fell to 1060K in Oct from a revised 1191K in Sept due primarily to a decline in apartment construction. Finally, Building Permits increased to 1160K in Oct, above the economist forecast of 1147K.

The Euro was higher against its major pairs except for the GBP. There was no major economic news reported in Europe.

The Australian dollar was under pressure against all of its major pairs except for the CHF.

Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1,0670 0.09 -11.80
GBP/USD 1,5233 -0.03 -2.21
USD/JPY 123,55 -0.07 3.22
EUR/CHF 1,0874 0.02 -9.48
EUR/JPY 131,8200 0.02 -8.88
EUR/GBP 0,7004 0.11 -9.82
AUD/NZD 1,0973 -0.13 4.70
AUD/JPY 87,9260 0.01 -10.06
EUR/AUD 1,4992 0.00 1.23
USD/CAD 1,3304 0.01 14.49
USD/CHF 1,0192 -0.07 2.50
AUD/USD 0,7117 0.08 -12.94
NZD/USD 0,6486 0.22 -16.81

Currency Updates:

Medium Term Strategy: Forex Pair of the day

USD/JPY – further advance

The pair has broken above a ST declining trend line and above the strong horizontal resistance at 122 and now stands above its moving averages. Further advance is therefore likely with a first target set at 126 (June top). A break above this threshold would call for further bounce towards 127.70 and towards 130 in extension (horizontal resistances). Only a break below the horizontal support at 118 would turn the outlook to bearish with a first alternative target set at 116 (December bottom) and a second one set at 113.40 (horizontal support).

Intraday Technical Strategy

AUD/USD Intraday: bullish bias above 0.707.

Pivot 0.7070
Our preference Long positions above 0.707 with targets @ 0.715 & 0.717 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 0.707 look for further downside with 0.704 & 0.7015 as targets.
Comment The RSI calls for a rebound.

 

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