Morning Dealing Room Technical Report

November 24, 2015

Market Comment

Australia

The S&P/ASX 200 index gained 0.39% or 20.278pts to 5276.42 (day range: 5285.5 – 5244) on Monday. The index is above its 20d MA (@ 5190) and above its 50d MA (@ 5172). 72% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 68% the previous session) and 70% of the shares are above their 50D MA (unchanged).
Foreign Exchange
The US dollar pushed higher against all its major counterparts on Monday. On the economic data front, US Markit manufacturing PMI lowered to 52.6 in Nov from 54.1 in Oct. Economists had been expecting 54. Sales of existing homes declined to 5.36M in Oct from 5.55M the month before, below the 5.4M estimate.

The Euro was mixed against its major pairs. In Europe, euro zone Markit PMI composite index climbed to 54.4 in November, in first estimation, from 53.9 in October. Economists anticipated a 54 reading.

The Australian dollar was under pressure against all of its major pairs except for the NZD.

Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1,0629 -0.16 -12.14
GBP/USD 1,5112 -0.52 -2.99
USD/JPY 122,86 0.06 2.64
EUR/CHF 1,0829 -0.13 -9.85
EUR/JPY 130,5800 -0.13 -9.74
EUR/GBP 0,7033 0.34 -9.44
AUD/NZD 1,1038 0.14 5.32
AUD/JPY 88,3570 -0.60 -9.63
EUR/AUD 1,4779 0.47 -0.21
USD/CAD 1,3371 0.19 15.06
USD/CHF 1,0189 0.03 2.47
AUD/USD 0,7192 -0.65 -12.02
NZD/USD 0,6514 -0.76 -16.46

Currency Updates:

Medium Term Strategy: Forex Pair of the day

USD/CAD – further advance

The pair has rebounded above the strong horizontal support and overlap at 1.28. Moreover, the daily RSI has broken above a declining trend line. Further advance is therefore likely with a first target set at 1.3450 (horizontal resistance and September top). A break above this threshold would open the way to further bounce towards 1.40 (May 2004 top). A third target is set at the previous overlap from january 2000 at 1.4320. Only a break below the strong horizontal support at 1.28 would turn the outlook to bearish with a first alternative target set at 1.2560 and a second one set at the horizontal support at 1.24.

Intraday Technical Strategy

AUD/USD Intraday: the downside prevails.

Pivot 0.7215
Our preference Short positions below 0.7215 with targets @ 0.715 & 0.7115 in extension.
Alternative scenario Above 0.7215 look for further upside with 0.725 & 0.727 as targets.
Comment The RSI lacks upward momentum

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