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Morning Dealing Room Technical Report

December 1, 2015

Market Comment

Australia
The S&P/ASX 200 index decreased 0.69% or 36.066pts to 5166.52 (day range: 5213.1 – 5166.2) on Monday. The index is below its 20d MA (@ 5172) and below its 50d MA (@ 5182). 55% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 57% the previous session) and 57% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 63%).

Australia’s securities inflation rose 1.8% YoY in November vs +1.8% in October, according to the Melbourne Institute for Economic and Social Research.

Australia’s private sector credit rose 6.7% YoY in October vs +6.6% in September, according to the Reserve Bank of Australia.
Foreign Exchange
The US dollar was under pressure against all its major counterparts except for the JPY and EUR on Monday. On the economic data front, Chicago MNI report fell to 48.7 this month from 56.2 last month. The estimate was for 54. Pending home sales increased 0.2% in Oct from a revised decrease of 1.6% the month before after economists were expecting an increase of 1%. The Dallas fed manufacturing activity came in at (-4.9) vs (-12.9) in the prior month.

The Euro was under pressure against all of its major pairs. In Europe, Germany retail sales fell 0.4% in October after being flat the month before. They were anticipated to be up by 0.4%. Germany consumer prices increased 0.1% in November in first estimation, as expected, after being flat in October. UK mortgage approvals were up to 69.6K in October (69.9K anticipated) from 69K a month earlier.

The Australian dollar was higher against all of its major pairs with the exception of the NZD.
Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1,0568 -0.24 -12.65
GBP/USD 1,5057 0.14 -3.34
USD/JPY 123,08 0.26 2.84
EUR/CHF 1,0874 -0.32 -9.48
EUR/JPY 130,0700 0.00 -10.09
EUR/GBP 0,7018 -0.39 -9.63
AUD/NZD 1,0982 -0.26 4.79
AUD/JPY 88,9980 0.77 -8.95
EUR/AUD 1,4615 -0.63 -1.32
USD/CAD 1,3358 -0.11 14.93
USD/CHF 1,0290 -0.08 3.49
AUD/USD 0,7231 0.53 -11.55
NZD/USD 0,6584 0.78 -15.56

Currency Updates:

Medium Term Strategy: Forex Pair of the day

GBP/USD – further weakness
The pair has broken below the support at 1.5070 and remains under pressure below the declining moving averages. Moreover, the daily RSI stands below its neutrality area. Further weakness is therefore likely with 1.4850 as a first target (horizontal support) and 1.4560 in extension (horizontal support and April low). A third target is set at 1.4230 (May 2010 bottom). Only a rebound above the resistance at 1.5660 (September top) would turn the outlook to bullish with a first alternative target set at 1.5940 (June top and previous overlap) and a second one set at 1.6190( 61.8% retracement of the July 2014 to April down leg).

Intraday Technical Strategy

AUD/USD Intraday: rebound.
Pivot 0.7195
Our preference Long positions above 0.7195 with targets @ 0.726 & 0.7284 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 0.7195 look for further downside with 0.7165 & 0.715 as targets.
Comment The RSI is well directed.

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