Morning Dealing Room Technical Report

December 2, 2015

Market Comment

Australia

The S&P/ASX 200 index jumped 1.93% or 99.621pts to 5266.14 (day range: 5279.3 – 5166.5) on Tuesday. The index is above its 20d MA (@ 5173) and above its 50d MA (@ 5185). 66% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 55% the previous session) and 65% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 57%). Trading volume on the index was high, 114.7% above the 3 months average.

Australia’s central bank maintained its cash rate target unchanged at 2.00% (as expected).

Australia recorded a current account deficit of A$18.10B in 3Q vs A$20.51B deficit in 2Q, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

Australia’s building approvals rose 3.9% MoM in October vs +2.3% in September, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

Australia’s commodity index dropped 22% YoY in November vs -20.2% in October, according to the Reserve Bank of Australia.

Foreign Exchange
The US dollar was under pressure against all its major counterparts on Tuesday. On the economic data front, MARKIT US Manufacturing PMI increased to 52.8 from 52.6 prior, slightly above the 52.6 estimate. Construction spending gained 1% in Oct from an increase of 0.6% in Sept, above the 0.6% expected. Finally, ISM Manufacturing came in at 48.6 in Nov compared to 50.1 in Oct, below the 50.5 expected.

The Euro was higher against most of its major pairs, lower against the AUD and NZD. In Europe, euro zone PMI manufacturing index was 52.8 in November in final estimation, as in first one, vs 52.3 a month earlier. Separately, euro zone unemployment rate fell to 10.7% in October from 10.8% a month earlier. It was anticipated to be flat. Germany unemployment rate was down to 6.3% in November vs 6.4% in October and expected by economists. UK PMI manufacturing index slid to 52.7 in November from 55.2 in October (revised from 55.5). Economists anticipated 53.6.

The Australian dollar was higher against all of its major pairs with the exception of the NZD.

Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1,0626 0.58 -12.17
GBP/USD 1,5077 0.14 -3.21
USD/JPY 122,89 -0.17 2.68
EUR/CHF 1,0912 0.38 -9.17
EUR/JPY 130,5800 0.40 -9.74
EUR/GBP 0,7047 0.42 -9.26
AUD/NZD 1,0975 -0.02 4.72
AUD/JPY 90,0260 1.18 -7.91
EUR/AUD 1,4505 -0.77 -2.05
USD/CAD 1,3366 0.03 15.01
USD/CHF 1,0269 -0.20 3.28
AUD/USD 0,7326 1.37 -10.39
NZD/USD 0,6675 1.38 -14.39

Currency Updates:

Medium Term Strategy: Forex Pair of the day

USD/CAD – the upside prevails

The pair has rebounded above the strong horizontal support and overlap at 1.28. Moreover, the daily RSI has broken above a declining trend line. Further advance is therefore likely with a first target set at 1.3450 (horizontal resistance and September top). A break above this threshold would open the way to further bounce towards 1.40 (May 2004 top). A third target is set at the previous overlap from january 2000 at 1.4320. Only a break below the strong horizontal support at 1.28 would turn the outlook to bearish with a first alternative target set at 1.2560 and a second one set at the horizontal support at 1.24.

Intraday Technical Strategy

AUD/USD Intraday: the upside prevails.

Pivot 0.7295
Our preference Long positions above 0.7295 with targets @ 0.7345 & 0.7365 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 0.7295 look for further downside with 0.7275 & 0.725 as targets.
Comment The immediate trend remains up and the momentum is strong.
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