Morning Dealing Room Technical Report

December 3, 2015

Market Comment

Australia

The S&P/ASX 200 index fell 0.15% or 7.8pts to 5258.34 (day range: 5269.3 – 5237.5) on Wednesday. The index is above its 20d MA (@ 5174) and above its 50d MA (@ 5190). 63% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 66% the previous session) and 61% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 65%). Trading volume on the index was high, 32.6% above the 3 months average.

Australia’s GDP rose 2.5% YoY in 3Q (vs +2.4% expected, +2.0% in 2Q), according to the government. On a seasonally-adjusted QoQ basis, 3Q GDP was up 0.9% (vs +0.8% expected, +0.3% in 2Q).

Australia’s government may lower its iron ore forecast – currently at $48/ton – in this month’s budget update, reported the Australian Financial Review.

Foreign Exchange

The US dollar was higher against all its major counterparts on Wednesday except for the CHF. On the economic data front, MBA Mortgage Applications fell 0.2% last week compared to a decrease of 3.2% in the week prior. ADP said companies in the U.S. added 217000 workers in Nov, higher than the revised 196K in Oct and higher than the average economist estimate of 190K. 3Q nonfarm productivity rose 2.2% in-line with estimates compared to an increase of 1.6% last quarter.

The Euro was mixed against all of its major pairs. In Europe, euro zone consumer prices growth was 0.1% in November YoY, or the same pace than the month before. Economists anticipated prices to be up 0.2%. UK PMI construction index fell to 55.3 in NOvember from 58.8 the month before. Consensus expected a 58.5 reading.

The Australian dollar was mixed against all of its major pairs.

Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1,0614 -0.18 -12.27
GBP/USD 1,4944 -0.92 -4.06
USD/JPY 123,23 0.28 2.96
EUR/CHF 1,0815 -0.87 -9.98
EUR/JPY 130,7900 0.12 -9.59
EUR/GBP 0,7102 0.72 -8.56
AUD/NZD 1,1002 0.32 4.98
AUD/JPY 90,0500 0.07 -7.89
EUR/AUD 1,4525 0.04 -1.92
USD/CAD 1,3348 -0.08 14.86
USD/CHF 1,0189 -0.69 2.47
AUD/USD 0,7308 -0.20 -10.61
NZD/USD 0,6641 -0.54 -14.83

Currency Updates:

Medium Term Strategy: Forex Pair of the day

EUR/USD – under pressure

The pair has broken below the lower boundary of a bullish channel in place since March and is capped by its moving averages. Then, as long as 1.11 holds as a resistance (strong horizontal resistance), further weakness is likely with 1.0450 as a first target (March low) and 1.0190 (previous overlap) in extension. A third target is set at 0.9850 (horizontal support). Only a rebound above the resistance at 1.11 would turn the outlook to bullish with a first alternative target set at 1.1495 (October top) and a second one set at 1.1730 (August top).

Intraday Technical Strategy

AUD/USD Intraday: bullish bias above 0.7295.

Pivot 0.7295
Our preference Long positions above 0.7295 with targets @ 0.7345 & 0.7365 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 0.7295 look for further downside with 0.7275 & 0.725 as targets.
Comment The RSI lacks downward momentum.

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