Morning Dealing Room Technical Report

December 4, 2015

Market Comment

Australia

The S&P/ASX 200 index declined 0.58% or 30.622pts to 5227.72 (day range: 5258.3 – 5200.4) on Thursday. The index is above its 20d MA (@ 5176) and above its 50d MA (@ 5193). 59% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 63% the previous session) and 61% of the shares are above their 50D MA (unchanged).

Australia recorded a trade deficit of A$3.31B (vs A$2.60B deficit expected, A$2.32B deficit in September), according to the government.

Australia: The Australian Industry Group Australian Performance of Services Index (Australian PSI) was down 0.7 point MoM to 48.2 in November. Key findings included: “Property & business services dropped 6.0 points to 48.6, while transport & storage was stable (down 2.5 points to 49.8). The communications sub-sector, in negative territory since December 2011, contracted again (down 1.6 points to 40.3). (…) The retail trade sub-sector fell 4.7 points to 45.2 after a stable month in October. Wholesale trade (up 0.3 points to 44.5) contracted for a fourth month after July’s brief expansion.”

Foreign Exchange

The US dollar On the economic data front, U.S. Initial jobless claims rose to 269K last week, in-line with estimates compared to 260K the week before. Continuing claims were at 2161K for the week ending Nov 21, slightly above the 2155K the week before however below the 2190K estimate. Markit US composite PMI lowered to 55.9 in Nov from 56.1 in Oct. US Services PMI lowered to 56.1 from 56.5 prior. Factory orders increased 1.5% in Oct from a revised decrease of 0.8% in Sept. Finally, Durable goods orders increased 2.9% in Oct from an increase of 3% in Sept.

The Euro In Europe, ECB cut its Deposit Facility Rate to -0.3% vs -0.2% previously and kept unchanged its Main Refinancing rate (0.05%) and Marginal Lending Facility rate (0.3%). ECB disappointed investors as new measures didn’t include an expansion of monthly asset purchases. Separately, Euro zone retail sales fell 0.1% in October, at the same pace than in September. Economists anticipated a 0.2% increase. Finally, euro zone PMI composite index was 54.2 in November in final estimation from 54.4 in previous one and 53.9 in October. UK PMI composite index climbed to 55.8 in November from 55.4 in October. It was expected to be 55.

Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1,0932 -0.07 -9.64
GBP/USD 1,5142 -0.01 -2.79
USD/JPY 122,63 0.01 2.45
EUR/CHF 1,0860 -0.07 -9.60
EUR/JPY 134,0700 -0.04 -7.33
EUR/GBP 0,7221 -0.05 -7.03
AUD/NZD 1,0981 0.04 4.78
AUD/JPY 90,0490 0.07 -7.86
EUR/AUD 1,4888 -0.10 0.52
USD/CAD 1,3350 -0.04 14.87
USD/CHF 0,9934 0.00 -0.10
AUD/USD 0,7344 0.04 -10.17
NZD/USD 0,6688 -0.01 -14.22

Currency Updates:

Medium Term Strategy: Forex Pair of the day

USD/ZAR – the upside prevails

The pair remains on the upside and should post further advance as it remains supported by its moving averages. Moreover, the daily RSI stands above its neutrality area. A first target to the upside is therefore set at 14.80 (Fibonacci projection). A break above this threshold would call for further bounce towards targets also given by a Fibonacci projection at 15.20 and at 15.85. Only a break below the strong support at 12.95 would turn the outlook to bearish with a first alternative target set at the previous overlap at 12.60 and a second one set at the horizontal support at 12.30.

Intraday Technical Strategy

AUD/USD Intraday: limited upside.

Pivot 0.7305
Our preference Long positions above 0.7305 with targets @ 0.7365 & 0.738 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 0.7305 look for further downside with 0.7285 & 0.725 as targets.
Comment The RSI is above its neutrality area at 50%.

 

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