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Morning Technical Report

July 9, 2015
Medium Term Strategy: Forex Pair of the day
USD/RUB – continuation of the rebound

The 20-day moving average crossed upward both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. In addition, the daily RSI is supported by a rising trend line. Therefore, as long as 52.30 holds as a support (horizontal support and overlap), a continuation of the rebound is likely with 58.70 as a first target (horizontal resistance and overlap) and 64 in extension (horizontal resistance and overlap). A third target is set at 71.80 (January top). Alternatively, a break below 52.3 would call for another test of the 48.5 strong support base.
Market Comment
Australia

The S&P/ASX 200 index dropped 2% or 111.893pts to 5469.53 (day range: 5567 – 5469.5) on Wednesday. The index is below its 20d MA (@ 5556) and below its 50d MA (@ 5629). 24% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 41% the previous session) and 20% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 29%).

 

Foreign Exchange
The US dollar was mixed against its U.S. counterparts on Wednesday. On the economic data front, MBA mortgage applications rose 4.6% for the week ending July 3 from a decrease of -4.7% in the week prior.The euro was higher against its major pairs. In Europe, according to Bank of France, french business sentiment index fell to 98 in June from 99 the month before. It was expected to be flat. According to Halifax, house prices in UK jumped by 1.7% in June after being up by 0.3% in May (revised from -0.1%). Economists anticipated a 0.3% rise.

The Australian dollar was under pressure against its major Pairs.
Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1,1077 0.60 -8.44
GBP/USD 1,5364 -0.63 -1.37
USD/JPY 120,78 -1.46 0.88
EUR/CHF 1,0476 0.47 -12.81
EUR/JPY 133,7800 -0.87 -7.54
EUR/GBP 0,7210 1.25 -7.16
AUD/NZD 1,1029 -1.59 5.24
AUD/JPY 89,6860 -1.78 -8.26
EUR/AUD 1,4917 0.94 0.73
USD/CAD 1,2739 0.24 9.62
USD/CHF 0,9457 -0.09 -4.89
AUD/USD 0,7426 -0.34 -9.16
NZD/USD 0,6732 1.22 -13.66
 

Intraday Technical Strategy 
AUD/USD Intraday: the downside prevails.
Pivot 0.7455
Our preference Short positions below 0.7455 with targets @ 0.737 & 0.733 in extension.
Alternative scenario Above 0.7455 look for further upside with 0.75 & 0.7535 as targets.
Comment As long as 0.7455 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.
Economic Releases
AU 03:30: Jun Employment Change, exp.: 0.0K AU 03:30: Jun Unemployment Rate, exp.: 6.1% AU 03:30: Jun Full Time Employment Change AU 03:30: Jun Part Time Employment Change AU 03:30: Jun Participation Rate, exp.: 64.7%
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