Trader Talk

January 8, 2018

What Happened on Friday > Top 3?

NonFarm Payrolls Surprise with weaker 148K in December vs. 190k Forecast.

USD gains even on weak numbers as market caught short

Dow Jones breaks new highs towards 25300

Outlook

A stretched short USD market saw a reversal on many pairs with EUR/USD finishing lower and USD/JPY finishing higher even with a weak NFP print. Stock on all major US indices closed at record highs as the investor frenzy continues to amaze.

Data & Event Risk Today?

The main thing to watch today is for USD follow through or if the main USD weakness trend resumes after Friday’s gains. Watch EUR/USD at 1.2000 for sentiment towards the Dollar. FOMC Members Bostic and Williams speak.

USDX: 91.75

Stabilised at 91.50 and we finished slightly higher at 91.75. Key support comes in at 2017 lows at 91. On the topside resistance is seen strong at 92.50

USD JPY: 113.15

Was supported on dips towards Y113.00 and is enjoying support on crosses as risk appetite led by US stocks remains so strong. Key US 10 yr yields remain under 2.5% and would need to break higher for a USD/JPY test of key resistance at Y114.

EUR USD: 1.2025

EUR/USD reversed from 2017 highs near 1.2080 again and now focus is shifting to 1.2000 and trailing stops below it from the recent rally higher.

GBP USD: 1.3560

Really tight ranges but struggling to hold gains as the USD pushed back on Friday. EUR/GBP reversed nicely though from above 0.8900 and is a better focus this week for GBP traders.

AUD USD: 0.7840

Stable and strong near 0.7850 the biggest risk is a EUR/USD led pullback if the rally looks fatigued. Good interest to buy at key 0.7760 supports.

NZD USD: 0.7175

the surprised darling of the market in the last 2 weeks, the NZD/USD rally is continuing and is threatening to test 0.7200 but on the charts is a bit stretched given lack of local data to support the rally and no significant change in Dairy prices.

USD CAD: 1.2395

The CAD continued to be the strongest pair in the market with strong Oil and stellar Canadian jobs data in December helping extend the USD/CAD sell off to below 1.2400.

VIX: 9.22

Record stock market surging is keeping the VIX under 10 and breaking records daily. Need some downside action in the S&P to get the VIX to spike higher.

GOLD: 1319

OIL (WTI):

BITCOIN (BTC):

Macro Themes in Play

Russell Sandiford / Dealer

Russell@easyMarkets.com

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