Trader Talk

USDX: 90.63

The dollar index declined to its lowest in three-years over last Friday since December 2014, as EUR surged following the Merkel’s grand coalition talks in Germany.

The US dollar plummeted to breaching the previous support level at 91, which was fuelled further by 0.1% reported US inflation rate from the previous 0.4%.

The weakening seems to be overstretched but it hasn’t showed any drawback yet.

Support: 90.4

Resistance: 91.2

USD JPY: 111.03

The pair settled lower at the end of New York session the November 27 top bottom at 110.833 after rising to 11.69 due to strong US economic data.

It is expected that the weakening USD would continue to persist in the short term at least.

Trader reaction around this zone will direct the longer-term trend of the market.

Support: 110.9

Resistance: 112

EUR USD: 1.2197

High leap over the weekend to the early year high by breaking the key level of 1.2200, following the announcement regarding Merkel’s CDU/CSU with Social Democrats towards ‘grand coalition’.

However, the negotiations of the coalition still away from being confirmed which is important to be watched for.

Buyers continue to focus on EUR which made it the strongest major currency on last Friday with an approximately increment of 150 pips over London and New York session.

The rally momentum is strong.

Support: 1.2095

Resistance: 1.26

GBP USD: 1.3739

GBPUSD cleared the resistance zone between 1.36 and 1.37 with a strong bullish momentum, and testing the 1.3800 level in the new trading week.

Not much fundamental developments from the UK, keep an eye on the upcoming key data of UK’s CPI as it might impact the current trend.

Support: 1.367

Resistance: 1.384

AUD USD: 0.7913

The pair continues to rally, pushing up the top position of the year by crossing the 0.7900 level, despite a big miss up from imports data of up just 4.5% (the expected is 13%).

The incline was due to another rise again on the oil complex as well as fuelled the surge in EUR and GBP that drove down the US Dollar Index.

High bullish potential in the short term at least after breaking the key level of 0.7890.

Support: 0.787

Resistance: 0.759

NZD USD: 0.7253

Kiwi reached its best level of the year again at 0.7275 over the weekend following the big drop on USD Index, however the bearish pattern was quickly negated.

The key support level would be at 0.7174, as breaking this point would turn the momentum opposite.

Support: 0.719

Resistance: 0.73

USD CAD: 1.2466

The USDCAD starts to rally at a key psychology level of 1.2456, as greenback skids on the its projected inflation and retail sales data last week.

Arguably, the dovish view strikes Canadian dollar not so much as a speculative tone. However, regarding to the fundamental viewpoint, strong fundamentals build up through monetary policy imbalance, and The Bank of Canada rate decision is scheduled, and the consensus among economists is for a 25 basis point rate hike.

Support：1.261

Resistance: 1.21

VIX: 10.16

US Stocks initiates an pretty start which sends an affirmative message to the market in the beginning of the week, delivering VIX lower again overnight. Higher VIX would not be expected when the corrective selloff in U.S. market is still underway.

GOLD: $1338.12

Gold rally to meet resistance price level of $1338 as Nov 2017, such move symbols a fifth consecutive week of gains for our safe yellow metal.

the XAU/USD pair initiates an ongoing rally alongside with rate hike expectations (core-CPI increased by 0.3% and 1.8% on a monthly and yearly basis respectively) in the U.S. raised the demand for traditional safe-havens.

Support: 1227

Resistance: 1345

OIL (WTI): $64.41

Oman Minister of Oil & Gas Mohammed Al Rumhy commented on the oil prices, and saw it holds around $65-70, while Alexander Novak (Russian Energy Minister) hints that ‘the market hasn’t re-balanced in full’. The continuing push of reducing production and low consumption should keep such prices afloat in the short term.

Support: 62.5

BITCOIN (BTC): $13531

Bitcoin has shrunken its value by 5.02% in last 24 hours. If a breakdown of the threshold of the support is to be occur, such as $12817 ( Feb 2), the constrain might not hold as the fundamentals for the bitcoin weakened when last week the Korean Justice Department indicated a bitcoin ban bill would progress.

Support: 12777.5

Macro Themes in Play