Trader talk

January 18, 2018

What Happened on [Wednesday] > Top 3?

• USDCAD Spikes higher on the back on a Dovish rate hike from BOC
• Bitcoin & Crypto selling pressure continues to drop large numbers off BTC
• GBPUSD jumps then retreats off 1.3940 highs amid more USD selling

Outlook

• (EUR) Euro back under 1.2200 seeing profit taking off highs
• (OIL) Oil runs up to $64 ahead of US Crude Inventories
• (GOLD) Gold slammed back off recent highs, holding around $1,326.

Data & Event Risk Today?

• (AUD) Aussie Jobs Data – 11.30 am Sydney
• (AUD) China Industrial Production & GDP – 6 pm Sydney
• (USD) Building Permits Data – 12.30 am Sydney
• (OIL) Crude Oil Inventories – 3 am Sydney

USDX: 90.668

Dollar index regained its strength yesterday, but On Asian hours it bottomed at 90.21. The consolidating phase takes long enough for market to wonder and integers further information from the financial side fundamentally.

Support: 90

Resistance: 91.2

USD JPY: 111.200

JPY rallies around in the 111.260 area and plunging down below the support level towards 110.780.

Regardless of tomorrow’s housing reports, If the dovish outlook can possibly be conveyed to the economy, the rate hikes in greenback might see dollar recover some of this month’s losses.

Support: 110.8

Resistance: 112

EUR USD: 1.2188

The sell-off in EURUSD found support in 1.2250 and kept a tumbling mood as European Central Bank Vice President Mr. Constancio made his comment “With the decision to halve our monthly bond purchases we have adapted our monetary policy to the new economic context and consequently to the higher inflation ahead”

Support: 1.2

Resistance: 1.236

GBP USD: 1.3814

The Pound continues going on an uptrend. Besides, the objective for this market comes in up in the 1.4200-1.4300 area. Post-Brexit highs above 1.38, analysts at Scotiabank and rarely fundamental releases have been noticeably productive.

Support: 1.374

Resistance: 1.4

AUD USD: 0.7978

Anticipating a modest decline of jobs in the month for annual employment date. The market is still getting sentimental about the commodity currency. A productive outlook in the market leads very positive tone to another rally.

Support: 0.787

Resistance: 0.8

NZD USD: 0.7275

The market is waiting for the catalyst which could inducing more gains along with the AUDUSD rally, and is the rate hikes do as expect this month. Test level could expect its storming back overnight or during this week.

Support: 0.721

Resistance: 0.733

USD CAD: 1.2425

BOC’s rate increase announcement by 25bps was as expected and the pair witnessed a wild swing after the raise.
The rate hike was fully priced in the markets and hence, as price near 1.2360, was quickly bought into.

A Hawkish view, followed by revision of GDP growths targets for 2018 and 2019 limits any up-move above the key level at 1.2500. On the other side, a break below 1.2400 level would turn the pair vulnerable.

Support: 1.235

Resistance: 1.259

VIX: 11.91

Not much change in the fear index, however it steadily going up yet slow as US500 Index’s momentum looking strong and not showing any sign of change in trend.

News regarding a possibility of government shutdown ahead on the market could impact the VIX index.

GOLD: $1327.48

The price of Gold declined overnight, crossing $1330 level, potentially confirming the trend change, as the pattern indicates exhaustion of bulls market.

Breaking the key psychological level at $1325 level would indicate a short term bearish reversal.

Following that the Greenback showing signs of reversal against JPY, GBP and EUR due for a correction.

Support: 1307

Resistance: 1345

OIL (WTI): $64

Crude Oil price bounced up back after Tuesday’s decline following the news of EIA expecting the U.S production to increase.

The overall bullish outlook remains intact as with a sustained Oil price movement.

Looking for the US Announcement regarding the Inventory report on Thursday which was delayed due to MLK Holiday.

Support: 62.66

Resistance: 66

BITCOIN (BTC): $11260

Huge price shift in Bitcoin overnight, breaching below the key support level at $10000 for the first time since early December, as still following the regulatory developments in South Korea and China.

Bounced back to above $11000, yet the direction is still not confirmed.

Any recent news regarding regulatory developments would further boost up the selloff.

Support: 9218

Resistance: 12820

Macro Themes in Play

• USD Still broadly soft, but some selling pressure has stalled
• Sterling holding UP firmly, Bullish momentum in play
• Bitcoin slide halted for now, as bargain hunters swoop

Russell Sandiford / Dealer

Russell@easyMarkets.com

Australia (toll free) T 1800 176 935

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