Trader Talk

USDX: 90.25

Approaching its fifth consecutive plunging, the dollar index last week making its lowest position at 89.94 since December 2014. The ramification of the U.S. government shutdown is pending for market reaction, as the such political event surely puts dollar in a fragile position in the near term.

USD JPY: 110.68

The dollar weakness persists. The government shut down are not seen as to be a long-term influencer for the economy, accompanied by higher the expected retail sales number and raising non-farm payroll, dollar persists as of writing. That being said, the greenback may take a further gap down. The market might be more responsive to and fluctuates upon the U.S. fourth-quarter GDP numbers which would be released on this Friday.

Bank of Japan is put tomorrow with their policy, which should move the needle for the Yen pairs.

EUR USD: 1.2252

Having spent last week in consolidative phase, EURUSD could finally exhibit volatility this week result from U.S. government shutdown and ECB meeting scheduled on this Thursday. We can certainly observe buying interest surged in this paring, however, there is no major sell-off in greenback yet and the quote poised as dollar shift into a more vulnerable state.

GBP USD: 1.3883

Major event concerning UK this week would be the UK employment data which is scheduled to release on this Wednesday, projecting 4.3% unemployment rate 0.2% higher than previous month. Phase 2 of Brexit operates underpinned by day to day negotiations, and the re-entry point for the more lucrative EU market is in play.

AUD USD: 0.7994

The Australia financial calendar is relatively quiet this week, the momentum in this pair does seem to support the break since last September 2017 high which is 0.8124. However, solid employment data in AU and continuing weakening in greenback has been the strongest support for this pairing, the bullish view is still in play.

NZD USD: 0.7278

Commodity currencies’ recent jumps are in coordinate with the Oil price surging. Small correction is in place as of writing in responsive to the resistance level 0.7320, approaching its 61.8% retracement level at 0.7270, if such level breaks we could expect a downfall at around 0.7233.

USD CAD: 1.2575

The pair showing a potential reversal sign of last week surge, hovering around 1.2475 level when the market opens over the weekend, as following the US Government shutdown. However, not a significant influence the loonie. as USD seemingly gaining its strength back.
Not much movement in the price ahead of key manufacturing report, however, it might want to look after the reported figure.

VIX: 11.27

The fear index dropped slightly as the confidence in US500 continues as its steady rallying, testing to reach another all time high even though selling pressure in USD persists.

US shutdown still not yet reflected to the figure, hence it is important to keep an eye on as which is expected to be impactful if the shutdown term is long,

GOLD: $1,335

The Gold price opened the new trading week with incline price gap reflecting US government shutdown announcement, yet quickly rejected and followed by bearish momentum.

The metal continues to hover around $1333 with no clear of the momentum, waiting for the progress in the USD Index.

OIL (WTI): $63.35

Oil Price’s consolidation continues with bearish closing price reversals over few days as exhaustion from bearish trend, potentially triggering corrections in the following term.
The sell-off pressure due to concern of increasing US production is still the main catalyst over the movement, further fuelled by stabilising USD index.

BITCOIN (BTC): $11,350

BTC continues to run along between $10,000 and $12,000, slow but rallying steadily over the few days, attempting to settle above the 2nd day of a bearish trend with key resistance level at $12,250.

Not much news progression from the Korean Justice Department on banning the crypto which is an opportunity to rally back up.

Macro Themes in Play

• USD Still broadly soft, Debt Ceiling political vote in focus
• EURO is set for a wild week ahead of the ECB Thursday
• AUD holds 80c as China growth data still solid last week