Trader Talk

USDX: 90.12

After two and half days of government shutdown, U.S. government is seeing its reopening bill to be passed today (Tuesday), which would keep the government running until February 8.

In addition to date celling raising decision scheduled in March, greenback certainly injects more volatility into the market than being currently priced in.

Bottomed at 89.94, the dollar index continues facing down trending pressure finding support at 90.00.

USD JPY: 111.00

The market would emphasize on BOJ rate decision for the first time this year, indicating an unchanged rate of -0.10%.

“Stealth taper” has been mentioned more than once recently denotes a slowing operation in the pace of its quantitative easing.

Such notes could suggest BOJ to scale back its scheduled stimulus and liquidity in near term.

Failed to break its 38.2% retracement at 111.405, USDJPY finds its support in 110.16 and could longer term resistance at 112.03.

EUR USD: 1.2260

EURUSD trades now represent a mixed sentiment, and eyes on the ECB meeting this week.

However, the policy guideline is expected to be unchanged, market would react on the potential hawkish language being used.

Strong resistance at 1.2300. EURUSD exhibits little reaction toward the U.S. government shutdown news, remained confined to a tight range.

GBP USD: 1.3980

The Cable indicates a mildly overbought situation at present on the daily chart. 38.2% retracement 1.3785 is our next support on four hours chart.

GBP three-month Average Earnings Index data unveils tomorrow, projecting the same level of output at 2.5% as previous quarter.

The sterling is approaching the 1.4000 level as USD softness and small progress helps support Sterling across the board.

AUD USD: 0.8010

Uptrend Aussie wagon is slowed, four-hour resistance at 0.8058 is not yet broken.

Longer time frame, we can see clear positive signal. Upside rejection at last weeks’ high 0.8048 is still held, the bullish view is in play and expecting 82 cents in the long term.

NZD USD: 0.7320

Commodity currency continues to push higher, adding to the ongoing selling pressure on the greenback, it suggests traders’ reluctance to hold net long position in dollar.

Seeing Kiwi to hold on to its gains against dollar, it is still unclear how sensitive would Kiwi get reacted towards reopening news concerning U.S. government.

USD CAD: 1.2454

The loonie failed to test the 1.25 level on Monday as the pair faced another selling pressure during the early New York session, despite of missed Canada’s manufacturing data by -0.3% from the forecast.

US Dollar index movements dominated the trading action, following the uncertainty of US shutdown persists.

The bearish momentum is gaining according to the daily chart outlook, possibly testing the resistance level at 1.2365 level.

VIX: 11.03

VIX rose overnight yet quickly rejected, failed to gain strength following the news of US Shutdown, as the US index momentum is rallying.

US500 index surged strongly, pushing up the all-time high even higher as the US senate agreed the funding and avoid further shutdowns in the short term which boost up the value.

GOLD: : $1,333

Not much movement in the Gold, as the price remained stable to its position from the last week’s gain, however might be expected to see a direction in the short term following the US Senates agreed to the funding.

OIL (WTI): $63.84

Oil Price gain some momentum from Monday’s movements, and remained to trade over Friday’s low ($62.78), still holding the recent gains.

Majority traders expected further production cuts following the comments by Russian and Saudi Arabian Energy minister during the meeting over the weekend.

BITCOIN (BTC): $10,635

Bitcoin price tumbled, crossing the $10,000 level again for the 2nd time daily, failed to persist the few days of bearish trend. Following the coin hack at IOTA, with an estimation of $4 million loss from the users.

The safety concern regarding the hack, dragging down the crypto further. The current downward movement is moderate.

Macro Themes in Play

• USD Still broadly soft, as EUR holds firmly ahead of ECB

• Yen volatility may change dramatically on BOJ commentary & policy

• Commodity currencies still Bid higher, for AUD, NZD & CAD.