Trader Talk

USDX: 88.95

FOMC today came with a mildly hawkish side, and market would like to price in three rate hikes this year. As Donald Trump’s State of Union stay with the script, the market reacts more fiercely toward FOMC announcement. When the president touted the economy achievements, FOMC meeting adds extra momentum to greenback with EURUSD struggle to hold gains in late NY session.

USD JPY: 109.15

Bank Of Japan’s recent assertiveness on easing policy, coupled with FOMC’s modest help to strengthen greenback, hence, a retrace back to 109.00 and more appears to be the advancing tone we have in the near term. FOMC leaves rate poised at 1.25~1.50%, and this was the last meeting with Janet Yellen to be with, we can expect some alternations on the next meeting. At present, USDJPY is above its 21 Simple Moving Average, and we remain bullish in this pairing. Some trading ideas could surface with the volatility we expect in the next few trading day.

EUR USD: 1.2420

The Strong Euro Zone data helped EURUSD to climb above 1.2400. Namely, German retail sales and strong labour data last quarter boosted the bullish outlook for German economy, and euro zone prospect in general. ECB is on fence and remained its previous view as forecasted until that outlook starts to evaporate. However, we are not seeing any indications of such in the near term.

GBP USD: 1.4200

U.K. really wish to retains its prestige financial central London as part of a Brexit deal, which means that a free trade deal on financial service bespoke for London. Notwithstanding, the EU clearly expresses it negative tone over such unfairly suggestion. Not to say that an agreement can not be reached, regardless of EU member’s rejection which is confirmed by Reuters.

AUD USD: 0.8060

Aussie has already rallied for seven consecutive weeks, and the outlook for AUDUSD continues to be bullish. An ascending channel appears to be distracted by the latest CPI release. On one-hour chart, we can find the market is approaching its 50% retracement at 0.8035. Around 0.7935, support has been tested by multiple times this month, and we look at 0.8135, and that probably a decent resistance level we can find in the near term until more fundamental surfaces.

NZD USD: 0.7375

Price seesawed on the late U.S. session, and we see it broke above the lower trend line, and a reversal is in place. Technically, if a 0.7372 support level can be established, it would suggest a much more convincing bullish ascending channel. Furthermore, such trend channel can be easily formed with the help of Non-Farm Payroll number this Friday in US.

USD CAD: 1.2305

The pair climbed mildly, reaching a peak of 1.2330 after the Fed’s decision regarding unchanged rates at its January meeting as the greenback took a slight leap as well. However, the move lacked support or limited by the release Canada’s GDP report with an 0.4% increase and leave the pair in consolidation phase around 1.2300, approximately the same level as it was before FOMC. All eyes on US NFP data which will be revealed later this week.

VIX: 13.54

The fear index started to go back downward as the declining in US500 index stop after the FOMC meeting.

GOLD: $1,344.5

The yellow metal dropped to weekly low as USD gain strength following the FOMC statement, however quickly bounced back to above $1340 zone as dollar fails to hold onto post Fed gains.
The turning point at $1332.5 turn into the first support level, which suggesting the continuation of bullish momentum in Gold following the previous rally.

OIL (WTI): $64.85

Oil retraced back to above $64.00 level, testing to level 65 once more and moving away from the key support level at $62.77 as the dollar unable to hold the gain from Fed’s decision. However, based on the fundamental news, the sentiment of investors in response to increasing oil rig counts still subdued which limit the potential upward.

BITCOIN (BTC): $11,160

Our analyst projects the recent decline was approaching initial support targets and our strong support. A near-term exhaustion did not reach $8,000~$9,000, and a rebound to $10,000 is in its uptrend region. Unavoidably, panic moments advance when the crowed feared heavy losses. At the end of the play, it was merely a scare. The outlook still was wholesome: we can confirm important supports and giving room and upper air for the change of direction in the moving averages to higher $11,230.

Macro Themes in Play

• Fed Holds rates but Dollar still slow to reverse ahead of NFP data.

• Oil back off recent highs amid huge Inventories number

• FX Majors tentative ahead of this week’s USD data