Trader Talk

USDX: 89.50

Dollar index tested 89.90 before the bears stepped in and coming back to the 89.60 area as US indexes settled higher than previous close after another deep sell-off as the U-turn in the dollar mirrored the reversal in the Dow’s movement. Mixed signals from equities and yields as US 10-year benchmark however recovered to 2.80% level after dropping to 2.65% during early trade in New York session.

USD JPY: 109.65

The pair won back some ground after yesterday’s slump as the US treasury yields back up to 2.80% near to the recent 4-year high, yet with bears hold the position as the gain capped below the key resistance level at 110.00. Retracement in the equities pushed the pair to upside however unable to extend its recovery. Investors await the next move from equity market.

EUR USD: 1.2385

Third consecutive low in this pair leans the prospect toward its negative territory, albeit EURUSD is trading at its higher region and positive data demonstrated in Euro Zone. A steeper downside channel registers as a corrective movement, and we didn’t see much of a sentiment in the market such as sell-off euro sell-off pressure. If we turn to our four-hour chart, ostensibly, our price is providing a short-term support around 1.2350.

GBP USD: 1.3950

GBPUSD managed to regain ground after sell-off reaching below the level 1.3850 during the NA session, however the upward potential remains well limited as USD’s gain took a breather. Upcoming Halifax house price index is release later today ahead of the BOE major events this week. Holding above the key resistance level at 1.4050 will back up the bears’ confidence.

AUD USD: 0.7895

The pair unable to hold its position above 0.7900 and remain within negative territory with not enough support for recovery ahead as negative data released regarding trade balance and retail sales from previous positive amid a large increase in imports. RBA decision on interest rate remains unchanged as expected which investors indicate consistent and sustainable growth in the economy ahead.

NZD USD: 0.7325

The Pair seemingly back on its track to daily upward momentum, taking advantage from lower unemployment rates data released, however capped at 0.7350. Investors look forward to RBNZ statements tomorrow regarding monetary policy to look for fresh impetus. Climbing back up to 0.7400 level would indicate strong bearish outlook.

USD CAD: 1.2505

Loonie ended with modest decline in NY session yesterday, and going through an unsurprisingly consolidative phase in our early Asian session, No major catalyst has been released that can servery shock the market, and we see intraday support level sits at 1.2500, and 50 pips higher resistance can be easily established when the momentum is sat in place. Canada expects to release its labour data on this Friday.

VIX: 37.32

The equity market in U.S. starts its resurgence in early NY session, trimmed half of its loss. Consequently, a 19.67% drop in VIX is not too surprising, giving us 30.00 for our fear index. Compared with our previous close at 37.32, VIX exhibits a nicely turn in charting and positions itself to a respective selling signal benchmark the U.S. 500.

GOLD: $1,326

The precious metal operates below it 200-Day SMA for the last 12 hours as of writing, and exhibits its sell-off pressure in response to the considerate rally in U.S. equity market. However, we see that the continuation of the yellow metal dump could last when we consider its short-term 23.6% retracement level has been tested for multiple times at $1,326.20. Fundamentally, the demand has been short term speculative for the last few sessions, and we observed $1,327 when positive Non-farm payroll number came out and reached its oversold territory at present.

OIL (WTI): $64.00

Oil operated in its ascending channel in June 22th 2017, and in the meanwhile, it tested and held on a couple of occasions. We can see clear lower-low bias in the market and immediate near-term support at $61.00. Crude oil up on API data, sees 63.80/barrel. Namely, API stock 1.05 million, compared with 3.229 million stored previously. It should be prudent to say that confident-based boosting in oil production would support the rally outlook for oil for decent period of time.

BITCOIN (BTC): $7,717

From its highs about $19,000 down around 70% to $6,000, bitcoin certainly has taken some decent hit at this point. Massive bear momentum has been turned around yesterday, right now, we are witnessing its continued recovery as of writing. Technically, $9,500 would be our next sequenced resistance level, and it is not too hard or too far away from its current rebound. Be mindful to place to take profit regarding the bitcoin price section, it wouldn’t be too long for the key level of $10,000 being reclaimed, when the void and worrisome sentiment being cleared and opening fresh air to an upside rejection breakout. We think bullish pivot is just down the road.

Macro Themes in Play

• U.S. dollar is seemingly unable to hold its gain following mixed data from equities and yield.

• US indexes bounced back up, as Wall Street panic calmed down

• EUR Hold its losses, continue to trade near the key resistance level.