Trader Talk

USDX: 90.05

The market expectation states consecutive rate hikes in 2018 with the same pacing as 2017 leans the equity market to a less panic tone. No such indication as to this is the end of the panic sell-off, we definite see mild recovery is underway while the volatility begins to settle down and sentiment proposition has been repositioning after the save heaven asset seeking. And the greenback certainly got a free ride forming its reversal right after the long overdue dumping in stocks.

USD JPY: 108.72

USDJPY ended the day unchanged, pursuing the swing and leaving with unnotably 37 pips movement from highest and lowest. Our momentum indicator states a pretty sweet consolidative region at around 50. However, the medium-term bearish and near-term rebound could be main story in this pair, and along with the dampen prospect of the growth and inflation in U.S. economy in a whole. Downside target can be set as low as 106.70 38.2% retracement and upside rejection would depend on the lower highs when it presents itself.

EUR USD: 1.2295

We might see U.S. Fed Fiscal and Monetary tightening with the operation of our new chairman Jerome Powell. Again, the main narrative has been handle by dollar and EURUSD is positioned nicely above 1.2300 support. While the bearish outlook for German GDP is still in play, the overall Euro Zone economic booming poises decent amount of impact upon Euros. At the same time, the second higher highs at 1.2300 is waited to be confirmed, a second and third wave is highly likely along the course of such pattern movement.

GBP USD: 1.3845

The ascending channel established in March 28, 2017 is still valid, and we have confirmed our previous higher highs at 1.4345. In the meanwhile, the 200-day SMA at 1.3835 offers compelling support as well as the reverse inertia to the uptrend momentum to the next higher high.

AUD USD: 0.7855

AUDUSD is in formation of its fifth longer lower high, and the previous higher low is at 0.7500, in coordinate with its uptrend channel. And the Aussie dollar mass sentiment is getting its proximity to the overall bullish trend. In our weekly chart, the trend has been established in January 17, 2016, and never been broken ever since. 0.7925 is the key level (200-day SMA resistance) for the substantial momentum to be released and it is the level that would open doors for ample opportunities.

NZD USD: 0.7254

Commodity currencies are performing well for the last few weeks, and carry trades opportunities re-emerge for. Kiwi-dollar likely to surge in the near-term spectrum and inspires overbought pressure and might undermine the appreciation in NZDUSD.

USD CAD: 1.2585

The previous bullish trend seems to calm down however hold the gain as the pair is trading relatively quiet in this week, hovering around 1.2580 region, crossed the 1.26 earlier as oil prices and equities are going up however capped the daily close at below 1.2600 level. Not much major economic data from the loonie side, as investors are seeking for fresh impetus.

VIX: 25.61

VIX daily value reduced once more by 11.80% following less volatility in US equities and seems to be holding the gain. The sentiment of Fed rising the rates seems to be less impactful to the market. Investors look forward for the upcoming US CPI reports this coming Thursday.

GOLD: $1,322

Gold recovers back to above $1,320 level as US buy-off is on hold and maintains its gain despite of the better mood global equities and advancing US yields. The surging in the yellow metal was backed by increasing physical demand from Asian consumers in the upcoming Chinese New Year and correction phase in the greenback. Investors wait for the US inflation repost which is be release next Wednesday.

OIL (WTI): $59.45

Oil price changes its track to recovery phase by jumping almost 1% and fleeing from the multi-weeks low at 58.05 at the end of last week following on declining USD and highly optimistic of rebalancing from UAE’s oil minister, despite of concerns in higher US oil production. Further pressured by launch of Yuan dominated oil contract by China on March 26.

BITCOIN (BTC): $8,700

The crypto holding up the 2.5% yesterday gain, which momentum still in the favour of the bull. However, despite of the short term bullish outlook, the investors are seemingly to be very careful in trading the bitcoin, given excessive volatility over the few last trading sessions. Upside resistance for bitcoin to support the bulls is at the $9,000 level, whereas breaching the level $8,300 will halt the rally.

Macro Themes in Play

• Dollar index consolidate, current market sentiment is under thoroughly scoping

• U.S. Deficit and debt ceiling coincide with Donald Trump’s aggressive monetary policies