Trader Talk

USDX: 89.99

The greenback strength extended and broke above the key level at 90.00 as the FOMC’s Meeting Minutes indicate confidence in the economic growth and the increased likelihood of more rate hikes ahead. US Treasury Yields 10Y soared to 2.96%, while the 2Y took a leap to 2.28% which is the highest in almost a decade. Breaking the key resistance level at 90.50 will send strong buy-off sentiment.

USD JPY: 107.62

The pair soared following the release of FOMC Minutes as it advanced up to test the 108.00 as the US Yields soared and indicate higher chance of rate hikes. The Japanese Nikkei manufacturing index printed lower than expected for February down to 54.0 from previous 54.8, however there no further impactful news on the docket for today. The key levels from here are 108 to the upside and 107 to the downside, with a bias to the upside in light of the recent US Dollar Index strength.

EUR USD: 1.2275

EURUSD continues its bearish tone following the FOMC minutes in the early morning AEST which favoured the greenback, breaking below the 1.2300 level and reaching towards to test the last week low. The rally in the dollar fuelled also by most of the PMI data release from the EU missed, except the German manufacturing PMI. The next key support level is at 1.22340, which breaking that level will push down the pair further.

GBP USD: 1.3905

The GBPUSD rejected again from the 1.4000 level and back to daily lows as the pound is under pressure from the strengthening greenback due to FOMC Minutes. The fell in the pound also bolstered by a mixed UK employment report, as the unemployment rate rose by 0.1%, however, the average earnings increase was better than expected. The upcoming important data from the UK is the second estimate of GDP.

AUD USD: 0.7795

Reversal momentum in the pair at the end of the New York Session when US Yields and the dollar index dominated by the bulls post-FOMC minutes by getting back onto 90 handles and the 10Y up to 2.95%. The downward pushed down further by the sour outlook in the equities. The key support level is at 7.5560, which will presume the bearish outlook if breach that level.

NZD USD: 0.7315

Bearish price section is continued to advance, slumping to its immediate support 0.7200, and that would be a short-term outlook. Following the reversal on the one-hour char, we can also observe the next resistance at 0.7400, and that should the trade to expect in a couple of days. When there are not so many fundamentals in play, what matters to Kiwi dollar is the pivotal level to watch, false breakout signals to avoid.

USD CAD: 1.2700

Spikes up following FOMC minutes, which weakened the loonie and testing the pair to touch the 1.27 level. Officials voiced concerns about risks in US economy and the interest rates should be raised soon which created inflation fears in the US economic outlook. Not much support from the Oil price movement as it declines for the 2nd day consecutively.

VIX: 20.02

The fear index moves in coordination with U.S. 2-year Treasury rate. At the moment, 2-year fund rate is in its three-year high at 2.25%. And higher VIX definitely led to the sell in short VIX products. That being said, with the most recent selling in Dow, it is fair to expect that no certain directional path can be cleared in the mixed-sentiment environment.

GOLD: $1,325

Our yellow metal followed the technically signal that we projected after a spike and higher shadow following FOMC minute. A retreat to its descending channel in still our daily overview for gold. Alongside with highest level on short-term risk-free rate since 2018, the risk bias to the downtrend is solid and require the catalyst to further explore multi-period lower lows.

OIL (WTI): $61.15

Stronger greenback and historical higher oil production in the U.S. executed with President’s policy, we are seeing an extraordinary pressure being formatted slowly but surely. Technically, in our four-hour chart, we are seeing short-term support at $61.28, if such level being breached, an aggressive selling seems to be unavoidable.

BITCOIN (BTC): $10,300

Anonymous buyer is putting $344 million purchase on bitcoin, and a gradual retrace back to the support is not surprising the market. $500 drop is registered as just another price seesawing, and bitcoin re-liberation in Japan and South Korean provide an extra boost for another bounce. For our prudent investor, a reversal at $10,000 is substantial spot both for longing and shorting.

Macro Themes in Play

• Dollar is in heated dovish or hawkish directional path, but rate hike in March is practically a done deal with 10-year rate as high as 2.95%

• Bitcoin slumps to $10,400, crawling back to the previous support at $10,000