Trader Talk

USDX: 89.95

The US Dollar Index jumped back up to above 90.00 level however quickly back to hover underneath it despite of equities recovery overnight from downward short spike and backed by rising U.S. yields. Further detrimental to the dollar movement is Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminium including close allies and trade partners. Earlier today, the data of US ISM Non-manufacturing came out lower than previous data, however had no meaningful influence. The main major mover for the greenback this week is the U.S. NFP at the end of this week.

USD JPY: 106.01

USD/JPY moved higher along with the US stocks as the return of risk appetite to the markets helped push the Japanese Yen versus the dollar, while investors shrugged off the looming threat of a global trade. This upcoming week, BOJ meeting with recent comments from Kuroda regarding the focus on normalization plans which investors would expect stronger Yen. Reaching above 108 level would breakout from the downward trend resistance.

EUR USD: 1.2335

The pair continues to trade around 1.2330 level as the market mood improves after dropped sharply as the results of the Italian elections emerged as well as backed by recovery in U.S. treasury yield, from initially high of $1.2364 on the news regarding the German politic. Looking at the technical point of view, the short-term trend is balanced however bullish stay in the position the longer-term despite of the recent double tops formation.

GBP USD: 1.3850

UK PM May recent optimistic words regarding reaching a deal sent the pound higher after dropped due to US dollar gained some ground as fears about a trade war have eased and U.S. yields rise which is supporting the greenback. The incline is backed by the UK Services PMI figures, which came out above expectations. The next key resistance level is at 1.3950.

AUD USD: 0.7765

The Aussie has halted the recent slide, however with bullish drive remains low, despite of the retail sales came out to be lower than expected however higher than previous negative figure. Investors still wait for the RBA interest rate decision later in the afternoon, which potentially will be a big mover. AUD has been in a state of decline since late January, as middling growth figures and mixed data continues expect the RBA into a holding pattern over rate increases.

NZD USD: 1.2965

NZDUSD was subject to positive flows in the greenback and came under pressure as commodities crumbled. The Kiwi went up in a relatively narrow range overnight, not fully taking advantage of stronger equity market sentiment. Strong immediate support level at 0.7200 as breaking that level would confirming recent double tops formation.

USD CAD: 1.2965

The USDCAD rally is looking strong, however failed to touch the key psychological level at 1.3000, after having reached a new 8-month high of 1.2997. The primary driver of the pair is the tension about the tariffs on steel and aluminium announced by US President Trump on last Thursday, which recently Trump said he will not back down. Major data ahead in from the loonie side is the BOC statement later this Thursday.

VIX: 18.73

The trade war which was triggered by Trump was eased as risk tolerance come back to the market, hence the fear index slightly dropped to below 19.00 level. Further fuelled by Equities recovery from the Tariffs plan by the U.S. President.

GOLD: $1,322

The yellow metal surrendered major part of its daily gains as US recovered following stronger U.S as bulls struggled to preserve early up-move, with a modest increase in the US Treasury bond yields. The main major data which investors are keenly waiting for is the super Friday data of NFP. Pushing above $1327 level will push the Gold upward.

OIL (WTI): ): $62.75

Oil extends its gain and gone above 62.00 level which indicates strong bullish phase as meeting of OPEC and US shale firms’ discussion on how to overcome current problem with rising US production. Investors are looking forward for weekly crude inventory data on this Thursday. The next key resistance level is at 63.50 level.

BITCOIN (BTC): $11,185

Slight drop on the crypto, however the bulls still remain in the action after breaking above 10,000 level. Strong resistance level at 11,750 which is struggling to break above it, on the other hand, the key support level is at 11,000 level, which in order to maintain strong upward momentum, it needs to remain above this level.

Macro Themes in Play

• Trade wars emerged affecting other major pairs versus USD