Market Action
What Happened on Thursday > Top 3?
* Global Stocks soar to Record highs, Dow Jones Hits 25000
* USD Remains Weak despite very solid ADP jobs Report 250k in December
* NZD leads pack higher, EUR/USD testing 2017 highs 1.2090
Outlook
EUR/USD open sky above 2017 high 1.2100
Gold targeting $1350
AUD/USD next target 0.8000
Data & Event Risk Today?
US December Non Farm Payrolls – Jobs forecast at 188k vs. 228k previously.
US December Average hourly earnings- forecast at 0.3% vs. 0.2% previously.
US December Services PMI – forecast 57.6 vs. 57.4 previously.
USDX: 91.60
The Dollar slump continued overnight and is verging on systemic weakness with nearly every currency with the notable exception of the risk sensitive Japanese Yen gaining against the greenback. Targets of 90 are very reasonable as even a strong NFP will likely only slow not reverse the rot.
USD JPY: 112.80
Strong cross flow with year high ins AUD/JPY and EUR/JPY have helped the USD/JPY remain contained and supported against broad USD weakness. Range trading looks likely but is one of the better options for those looking to express USD strength. Broad 112-114 range in play.
EUR USD: 1.2090
2017 highs near 1.2090 are in play and if broken the upside is considerable with many banks and analysts putting out notes targeting 1.25 medium term. The Eurozone economic outlook and investment expectations this year are high and relative to the US should expect a lot more flows inward. Interest rate differentials still points to a much lower EUR/USD but are currently not the driving force in FX markets.
GBP USD: 1.3550
Following its big brother EUR/USD higher the GBP/USD has been relatively subdued in the last month with the usual volatility lacking. Perhaps a break above last years high at 1.3640 will get the market more excited and speed things up a little. Brexit news has slowed as well and not a talking point in FX circles at the moment.
AUD USD: 0.7867
Fresh multi month highs with the AUD/USD grinding higher and well supported on dips. After break 0.7750 and 0.7850 the next big target is 0.8000. High commodities and a weak USD supporting outlook and local data still neutral along with the RBA.
NZD USD: 0.7160
Was the strongest pair in the market overnight as it played catch up and broke resistance at 0.7100 convincingly. AUD/NZD pared back below 1.1000 and the negative sentiment regarding the NZD has all but disappeared in the last month as the market moved past the new Labor government and RBNZ independence talk.
USD CAD: 1.2480
USD/CAD broke below the psychological 1.2500 level as the one day reprieve rally on Wednesday reversed with USD weakness overnight and fresh highs in Oil above $62. Hard to see the USD/CAD slowing down in the currently environment with profit taking the only danger
VIX: 9.22
Record low VIX number continue as US stocks continue to surge higher. The lack of volatility in US stocks is getting the stage where everyone is becoming immune to potential downside with the last 5% correction over 500 days ago.
GOLD: 1321
Surged above $1320 with the one day of profit taking pulling back to $1306 before surging higher even with strong US data.
OIL (WTI): $61.90
Oil continues to be very well supported with Iran tension backdrop and OPEC still trying to keep price high. US Oil inventories showed a bigger draw than expected and kept WTI OIL near $62 in steady trade.
BITCOIN (BTC): 14950
Bitcoin volatility in the last two days has settled down and we have began to orbit the $15000 level with dips bought but profit taking so far capping any attempts for the market to break away from the level. Alot of focus on Ethereum and ripple is coming at the expense of the more expensive bitcoin.
Macro Themes in Play
* Melt up in Stocks supporting risk appetite
* Weak USD getting serious as key 2017 levels being tested
*US jobs data to focus market on FED in 2018
