USD makes good gains last week on weaker commodities. Big data week ahead.
02/06/08
last week’s currency trading review
The Dollar made strong gains this weak against all the Majors as Crude Oil eased back below $130 per barrel and Gold fell below $900 an ounce. Most of the US Economic data out last week was dollar supportive, April New home sales at 526K beat estimates of 522k and Core Durable Goods surprised at 2.5% vs. -0.4% expected. Preliminary 1st quarter GDP came in as estimated at 0.9% annualized. US Treasury yields made large gains and this supported the Dollar as markets started pricing in US FED hikes for later this year. The Euro was hurt by weaker economic data and falling commodities. German Unemployment was poor increasing 4K vs. -25K expected, followed up by soft April German Retail sales coming in at -1.7% vs. 0.6% forecasted. CPI numbers showed inflation still uncomfortable high in Europe with German CPI at 0.6% m/m and Flash Eurozone CPI estimates of 3.6%. Euro closed last week -1.32% at 1.5555 having opened at 1.5760. The Japanese Yen was sold heavily this week with the carry trade back in such demand that all the crosses made substantial gains. The USD/JPY gained 2.07% closing at 105.56, after opening the week at 103.37. The GBP was fairly unchanged over the week shrugging off economic data that came out weaker than expected with GFK consumer sentiment at -29 (-25 expected) and Nationwide house prices at -2.5% (-0.5% expected). The GBP/USD gained 0.14% opening the week at 1.9796 before closing at 1.9821. The AUD came off multi decade highs as gold fell over $30 an ounce during the week and New capital expenditure disappointed coming it at -2.5% vs. a rise of 3.1%. The Aussie Dollar ended the week at 0.9555 after opening at 0.9594.
The forex trading week preview
In the States Big week ahead with MayISM Manufacturing Index and Prices out Monday, April Factory orders out on Tuesday. May ISM Non-manufacturing Composite, May ADP employment change along with Nonfarm Productivity all come out on Wednesday. Weekly jobless claims are out on Thursday followed by the market moving Nonfarm Employment Numbers on Friday. We will provide our previews and reviews of these data releases in the daily summary.
In the Eurozone Focus will be on the ECB’s interest decision on Thursday and the press conference afterwards. May PMI manufacturing and services are out during the week and German Factory orders on Thursday will give insight into the health of the worlds largest exporter. In the UK Interest rates are again the focus with the BOE meeting Thursday to discuss rates. Manufacturing, construction and services PMI’s all come out this week along with the Halifax House Price Index. We will provide our previews and reviews of these data releases in the daily summary.
In Japan Very light data week with Wednesday’s capital spending number the highlight. We will provide our previews and reviews of these data releases in the daily summary.
In Australia Big week starting with Retail sales on Monday (update April Retail sales -.02% vs 0.2%expected). On Tuesday the RBA meets to discuss interest rates along with May Building Approvals. On Wednesday 2nd quarter GDP numbers are out along with Aprils Trade balance on Thursday. We will provide our previews and reviews of these data releases in the daily summary.
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.5410 |
1.5462 |
1.5555 |
1.5669 |
1.5761 |
|
USD/JPY |
103.89 |
104.61 |
105.50 |
105.88 |
106.55 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.9614 |
1.9685 |
1.9740 |
1.9852 |
1.9870 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.9430 |
0.9511 |
0.9550 |
0.9581 |
0.9639 |
|
XAU/USD |
860.50 |
870.45 |
887.00 |
909.85 |
930.90 |
·Euro – 1.5555
Initial support at 1.5462 (May 30 low) followed by 1.5410 (May 6 resistance). Initial resistance is now located 1.5669 (May 29 High) at followed by 1.5761 (May 28 high).
·Yen – 105.50
Initial support is located at 104.61 (May 29 low) followed by 103.89 (May 28 low). Initial resistance is now at 105.88 (May 29 high) followed by 106.65 (Feb 28 high).
·Pound – 1.9740
Initial support at 1.9674 (May 29 low) followed by 1.9614 (May 21 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.9852 (May 23 high) followed by 1.987 (76.4% retracement of 2.00027-1.9363)
·Australian Dollar – 0.9550
Initial support a 0.9510 (May 30 low) followed by 0.9543 (61.8% retracement 0.9291 to 0.9655). Initial resistance is now at 0.9581 (May 30 high) followed by 0.9639 (May 29 high).
·Gold – 887
Initial support at 870.45 (May 30 low) followed by 860.5 (May 14 low). Initial resistance is now at 909.85 (May 28 high) followed by 930.9 (May 27 high).
