General Commentary
Last Week’s currency trading review:
The Euro: The EUR/USD closed the week at 1.3897 unable to sustain the 1.39 price which triggers technical selling each time prices break over. There is no reason for the euro to remain so strong, but the success of the Greek bond sales last week helped push the strength of the Euro. However, in the weekend, the ECB stated that “The stronger the euro the more need for monetary accommodation” which caused EUR/USD opened lower with a gap to 1.3837.
The Yen: USD/JPY eased most of the week to close at 101.57 after opening at 103.32 as the US dollar tumbled after the FOMC minutes release on Wednesday as traders realized that interest increase remained well in the future and BOJ held both rate and policy steady. BOJ Governor Kuroda will be speaking on both Wednesday and Thursday and consumer confidence figures on Thursday likely to shed some light on the extend of sales tax hike which was introduced on 1st of April.
The AUD: The pair closed the week above 94 at 0.9403 its highest close in a long time as the US dollar weakened and Chinese data continued to disappoint. The move tracked a pickup in RBA interest rate hike expectations. The possibility of more stimulus in China is giving the Oz an upward bump. Although data from last week was fairly positive with employment came in better the f/c. The magnitude of the recent weakness in export and import figures that came out from China was sharply overstated.
The Forex Trading Week Preview:
The States:
Monday, Core Retails Sales (0.5% f/c vs 0.3 prev), Retail Sales (0.8 fc vs 0.3 prev). Tuesday, Core CPI (0.1 vs 0.1), Yellen speaks, Wednesday, building permit (1M vs 1.01M), Yellen SPeaks. Thursday, Unemployment Claims (316k vs 300k).
The EZ:Tuesday, German ZEW (46.3 vs 46.6).
The AUS:
Tuesday, Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, Thursday, Business confidence.
The BOJ: Wednesday, BOJ Kuroda, Thursday BOJ Kuroda
